The Snow Report
Interpreting San Francisco real estate beyond the headlines
Inventory remains tight. Buyers remain aggressive. And San Francisco continues to outperform expectations.
What’s notable about San Francisco’s market right now isn’t just pricing — it’s persistence.
The typical late-spring slowdown hasn’t really materialized this year. Buyer activity has remained unusually strong well into May, particularly for well-positioned single-family homes.
Inventory remains historically constrained, competition continues across many neighborhoods, and buyers who spent much of the last two years waiting on the sidelines are increasingly re-entering the market as supply remains limited.
Across San Francisco, single-family homes are averaging nearly 27% over asking price year-to-date, with median market times hovering near historic lows.
This remains a supply-constrained market first and foremost.
What’s Driving the Market Right Now
Summer 2026
At a high level, the story hasn't changed — it's intensified.
Inventory remains historically low, now down 35–40% year-over-year
Buyers are active and decisive
When something comes to market that makes sense, it's gone fast
That combination is what’s driving the pace — and the pricing.
Nationally, new listings have been climbing. San Francisco is not seeing that in any meaningful way. Until more sellers decide to move, the imbalance between supply and demand is likely to keep driving competition — and prices — through the rest of the year.
Inventory is down 35–40% year-over-year — and buyers are acting like it.
There are currently just ~200 single-family homes on the market citywide — still well below normal for this time of year.
Single-family Continue Leading
Single-family homes remain the strongest segment of the San Francisco market this spring.
Year-to-date, the median single-family list price sits around $1.65M, while the median closed price has climbed above $2.09M — roughly 26.6% over asking.
Median days on market have fallen to roughly 11 days citywide.
Inventory also remains materially constrained compared to last year, continuing to create intense competition for homes with strong fundamentals:
Natural light
Functional layouts
Outdoor space
Updated systems
Desirable neighborhood locations
In practical terms, when a home comes to market in a neighborhood buyers already understand and want to be in, it often doesn’t take long to find its audience.
The demand is already there.
Condos Are Improving - Buyers Still Have Options
Condos are having a strong start to the year. The pace is more measured, but the direction is clear.
The condominium market has strengthened considerably compared to the last two years, though conditions remain more nuanced than on the single-family side.
Median condo sale price: $1.33M — up more than 20% year-over-year
Inventory significantly constrained, months of supply around 2.5
Median days on market: 14 days
The condo market has shifted from buyer-leaning last year to a seller's market now
Median condo pricing has rebounded meaningfully this year, with well-located, updated units continuing to outperform — particularly homes with parking, outdoor space, good natural light, or architectural character.
But buyers are still selective.
Units that feel straightforward and easy to understand are moving quickly. Units with functional compromises, deferred maintenance, or weaker locations are generally taking longer to find their buyer.
That variability remains an important part of today’s condo market.
Speed Is Up — And It’s Supply Driven
Homes across San Francisco are generally selling much faster than they were a year ago.
That speed reflects more than presentation or marketing timing. It reflects the reality that there are still more active buyers than available inventory.
When a home comes to market and checks the core boxes buyers are prioritizing today — location, livability, condition, layout, and pricing clarity — buyers are moving quickly.
The hesitation that defined parts of 2023 and early 2024 has faded noticeably this spring.
Homes are selling in 11–14 days — and that number reflects how quickly buyers are stepping in, not just how homes are being marketed.
Inventory Remains The Key Issue
Despite the typical spring lift, inventory is still dramatically below where it was a year ago.
Single-family inventory: down 35–40% year-over-year
Condo inventory: also significantly constrained
Total available homes citywide remain unusually low
Nationally, new listings were up more than 20% in March. San Francisco is not seeing that. Inventory here remains down substantially year-over-year, and there's little sign that's changing.
Until more sellers decide to come to market, that imbalance is likely to continue driving competition.
For Sellers: The Window Remains Strong
For sellers with well-positioned homes, market conditions remain favorable — especially on the single-family side.
Demand remains active, competition is real, and buyers are making decisions quickly when homes are priced and presented correctly.
That said, outcomes are still being shaped early:
Pricing strategy matters
Preparation matters
Timing matters
The first week on the market continues carrying significant weight
Strong markets still reward thoughtful execution.
For Buyers: Preparation Matters More Than Ever
This is not an impossible market — but it is one that rewards preparation and clarity.
The strongest opportunities are moving quickly, and buyers who understand their priorities, financing, and competitive limits ahead of time are generally navigating the market far more successfully.
Most buyers we’re working with are no longer waiting for dramatically lower interest rates.
They’re moving when the right property becomes available.
Data source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® (SFARMLS). Statistics reflect single-family and condominium sales within San Francisco County.
What I’m watching next:
Whether more sellers decide to come to market this summer. Nationally, inventory is building. SF hasn't followed that trend — but if it does, even modestly, it will take some pressure off buyers and slow the pace of price increases. I don't expect a correction. I do expect the market to continue rewarding sellers who are well-prepared and priced honestly..
Final thought:
This is a supply-constrained market, not just an overheated one.
Single-family homes are driving the momentum. Condos are improving, but with more variability.
And right now, more than anything, the pace of this market is being set by one thing:
There simply aren't enough homes to meet the demand that's already here.
Thinking About Your Next Move?
If you’re trying to understand how this market applies to your home — or your search — I’m always happy to talk it through. Learn more about how I work with buyers and sellers.