A Goldilocks Economy is an economy that is neither too hot or cold, in other words, it sustains moderate economic growth and has low inflation, which allows a market-friendly monetary policy. Today’s national employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics once again outpaced expectations by posting a 263,000 increase in jobs added in …
Continue reading “March U.S. Jobs Report: Are we in a Goldilocks Economy?”
A substantial portion of Q1 statistics reflect new listings and accepted offers occurring during the mid-winter market doldrums (Thanksgiving to mid-January). In November and December 2018, the stock market plunged drastically from its all-time high in September, and interest rates hit their highest point in years: these factors negatively affected buyer demand. Then both turned in dramatically positive directions in…read more →
Spring 2018 was one of the hottest markets in SF and the Bay Area in the last 2 decades. Then the market began to cool in summer and autumn – demand, sales and appreciation rates generally dropping, while supply and price reductions increased – before the mid-winter doldrums took hold. The magnitude of these changes varied by county, with SF…read more →
As of early February, the government shutdown is over – at least for a little while – the stock market has recovered dramatically from its late 2018 plunge, and interest rates are well down from November highs. A good number of large, local, high-tech “unicorns” continue to plan IPOs in 2019. All these are positive economic indicators for the Bay…read more →
There were almost too many local, national and international political, economic, social and ecological factors impacting the 2018 market to count. In the first half of the year, market conditions were about as hot as they’ve ever been, and there were staggering year-over-year appreciation rates. Come summer/early autumn, real estate and financial markets began to shift distinctly cooler. Looking at…read more →
We are always hesitant to make too much of a single month’s or a few months’ data: Short-term fluctuations in median sales prices and other market statistics are not uncommon and don’t always give definitive perspective as to where the market is heading on a longer-term basis. Still, many of the changes seen over recent months are substantial – and…read more →
The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller high-price-tier Home Price Index for the 5- county San Francisco Metro Area, illustrated above by the blue line, applies best to more expensive Bay Area housing markets such as most of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley/Lamorinda. The SF Metro low- and mid-price tiers had much more dramatic bubbles and crashes in 2005-2011, but…read more →
Autumn markets in counties around the Bay Area have seen significant shifts, with wide variance in the magnitude of these changes between counties. So far, San Francisco itself has seen less dramatic changes than other local markets such as Santa Clara and Sonoma Counties. Homes that sell have generally continued to sell quickly, at prices often well over asking. Median…read more →
Due mostly to seasonal issues, median sales prices typically drop in Q3 from Q2 peaks, and did so this year as well. The median SF house price was up 15% and the median condo price was up 4% from Q3 2017. The other Bay Area counties also saw substantial year-over-year increases in median home sales prices in Q3 2018. New…read more →
The big political issue facing the market is CA Prop 10, which, if passed in November, repeals the limits on local rent control laws enacted in the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act. This would almost certainly have negative ramifications for owners of multi-unit residential properties in San Francisco and Oakland. The CA Legislative Analyst Office does a good job summarizing the…read more →
