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The San Francisco Real Estate Spring Market Begins

Spring 2018 was one of the hottest markets in SF and the Bay Area in the last 2 decades. Then the market began to cool in summer and autumn – demand, sales and appreciation rates generally dropping, while supply and price reductions increased – before the mid-winter doldrums took hold. The magnitude of these changes varied by county, with SF…read more →

San Francisco Real Estate Heading into the 2019 Market

As of early February, the government shutdown is over – at least for a little while – the stock market has recovered dramatically from its late 2018 plunge, and interest rates are well down from November highs. A good number of large, local, high-tech “unicorns” continue to plan IPOs in 2019. All these are positive economic indicators for the Bay…read more →

San Francisco Real Estate Looking Back on 2018

There were almost too many local, national and international political, economic, social and ecological factors impacting the 2018 market to count. In the first half of the year, market conditions were about as hot as they’ve ever been, and there were staggering year-over-year appreciation rates. Come summer/early autumn, real estate and financial markets began to shift distinctly cooler. Looking at…read more →

Bay Area Real Estate Markets Survey

We are always hesitant to make too much of a single month’s or a few months’ data: Short-term fluctuations in median sales prices and other market statistics are not uncommon and don’t always give definitive perspective as to where the market is heading on a longer-term basis. Still, many of the changes seen over recent months are substantial – and…read more →

30+ Years of Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller high-price-tier Home Price Index for the 5- county San Francisco Metro Area, illustrated above by the blue line, applies best to more expensive Bay Area housing markets such as most of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley/Lamorinda. The SF Metro low- and mid-price tiers had much more dramatic bubbles and crashes in 2005-2011, but…read more →

Mixed Signals in San Francisco Real Estate Market

Autumn markets in counties around the Bay Area have seen significant shifts, with wide variance in the magnitude of these changes between counties. So far, San Francisco itself has seen less dramatic changes than other local markets such as Santa Clara and Sonoma Counties. Homes that sell have generally continued to sell quickly, at prices often well over asking. Median…read more →

San Francisco Early Autumn Market Report

Due mostly to seasonal issues, median sales prices typically drop in Q3 from Q2 peaks, and did so this year as well. The median SF house price was up 15% and the median condo price was up 4% from Q3 2017. The other Bay Area counties also saw substantial year-over-year increases in median home sales prices in Q3 2018. New…read more →

The Multi-Unit Residential Property Markets of San Francisco, Alameda & Marin Counties

The big political issue facing the market is CA Prop 10, which, if passed in November, repeals the limits on local rent control laws enacted in the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act. This would almost certainly have negative ramifications for owners of multi-unit residential properties in San Francisco and Oakland. The CA Legislative Analyst Office does a good job summarizing the…read more →

CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Update

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index does not evaluate median sales price changes, but employs its own proprietary algorithm to measure home price appreciation over time. Since its indices cover large areas – for example, the San Francisco Metro Area is comprised of 5 counties – which themselves contain communities and neighborhoods of widely varying home values, the C-S…read more →

San Francisco September Newsletter

September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings coming on market in San Francisco, a big spike in inventory which fuels the relatively short autumn selling season. Very early indications are that this September may be a very big new-listing month, and how buyers react to the flood of new inventory will provide more clarity…read more →